Myriam Marending, CBS Title: “War and Peace: Civil conflict dynamics in the presence of peace agreements”
Myriam Marending is a 4th year PhD student in Economics at the Copenhagen Business School. Her research topics are in the field of development economics, in particular conflict dynamics, agriculture and informality, often employing a spatial analysis angle. The title of her talk is “War and Peace: Civil conflict dynamics in the presence of peace agreements” [paper not available yet].
In this paper I exploit spatial discontinuities to examine the effect of peace agreements on civil conflict dynamics by signatory and non-signatory armed groups in Africa between 1998 and 2019. Based on the conflict events I construct dynamic territories under influence of armed groups over time, which I instrument using a theory-based spatial partition of Africa. These plausibly exogenous discontinuities are matched to the signatories of 414 peace agreements. Looking at yearly-grid-cells in the vicinity of the discontinuity, I find a negative average treatment effect of peace agreements on the incidence of violence in the year of the signing. The findings help inform our understanding of the interaction between peace agreements as potential relative power shifters between signatory and non-signatory armed groups, with implications for provisions and inclusiveness of peace deals.