Luca Neri, Aarhus University
Title: “Structural Estimation Combining Micro and Macro Data” at the joint macroeconomics and econometrics seminar.
The seminar will be given in hybrid form. You are all welcome to join either physically in the Alfa seminar room or via Zoom.
Abstract: Using a structural vector error correction model, we identify an inflationary technology news shock that drives the majority of business cycle fluctuations of output (50%), consumption (45%) and investment (75%) in US. This shock is an important driver of Total Factor Productivity in the long run, while not affecting it in the short run. The technology news shock acts like a demand shock: it induces positive comovement both in real quantities - GDP, consumption, investment, hours - and between real quantities and inflation. Anticipated technological changes became the main drivers of the U.S. business cycle especially from the 80’s, due to the improved transmission through the financial sector